Thank you to the Chamber of Commerce for putting on the 2020 RBC Economic Outlook. It was a very informative morning listening to the countries’ foremost thinkers, discuss current affairs and the global economy. Robert Hogue Senior economist with RBC kicked off the discussion with an economic forecast, covering the global and Canadian economy. According to Hogue, Canada looks further away from a recession than it did six months ago, as the inverted yield curve has gradually returned to normal. Despite a slowdown in global economic growth, RBC does not foresee a significant contraction of economic activity in the Canadian economy. Hogue also commented that the Phase 1 accord between China and the US has eased financial markets and that the global trade picture appears “less foggy.”
RBC forecasts 1.5-2% GDP growth for Canada, and unemployment to hover around 5.7, edging closer to full employment. Ontario is also showing signs of positive economic growth. Ontario has added 200,000 jobs over the last 12 months and will enjoy 1.7% GDP growth for 2020. Hogue said that RBC predicts the Bank of Canada will issue 1 cut to interest rates this year. The Bank of Canada has held the line on any adjustments to interest rates to prevent rendering highly indebted Canadians more vulnerable to an economic shock.
Sean Simpson, Vice President of Ipsos Public Affairs, offered interesting data. According to Simpson, the 3rd most important issue to Canadians is housing. The first and second most important issues were healthcare and climate change, respectively.
Hon. John R. Baird, P.C., Senior Business Advisor, Bennett Jones LLP discussed geopolitical issues and the impact it can have on Canadian business sentiment, and the Canadian economy. Baird discussed the escalation between the US and Iran and how it can affect the Canadian economy. However, Baird struck a positive tone on the renegotiated NAFTA. Baird says the new deal was the best possible outcome, considering Canada negotiated a trade deal with the world’s largest economy, and came out of it relatively unscathed.
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